THIS WEEKEND’S STUNNING DEVELOPMENTS have enormous implications, as the end of the Ukraine War comes into focus. Here are six major take-aways:
1. UKRAINE HAS THE BATTLEFIELD OPENING it has longed for. After the counter-offensive got off to a modest start, this war once again will be driven by troop morale. The Ukrainian forces have an opening: Russian troops and Wagner conscripts are in disarray. We would be astonished if there aren’t major Ukrainian advances — and Russian retreats — in the next few weeks.
2. WE HAVE LONG THOUGHT that the biggest game-changer would be the ouster or death of Vladimir Putin. He’s on very thin ice, as is Wagner leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin. We would be stunned if both are still alive by fall; they appear to be in hiding now.
3. THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE hate Putin and his inept army, even to the point of supporting the vulgar thug Prigozhin. Putin’s miscalculations — he doesn’t understand military strategy, he doesn’t even understand how to use social media — have diminished his standing. And the Russian economy is in shambles, perhaps the ultimate crisis for Putin.
4. THE U.S. AND ALLIES will continue supplying aid to Ukraine but they will say little, wisely. Any comment from Washington or Paris that takes sides with either Wagner or the Russian army would be viewed as interference. Napoleon and many others have proclaimed: “Never interfere with an enemy while he’s in the process of destroying himself.”
5. WITH RUSSIA’S GOAL OF CONQUERING UKRAINE now in shambles, this is no time to gloat — the Kremlin has nearly 6,000 nuclear weapons, BBC reported late last year. It’s clear that Russia cannot win this war, but with Putin boxed into a corner, poking the bear makes little sense.
6. OUR FORECAST: Russian forces are demoralized and Wagner has only 25,000-35,00 troops. These troops are poorly fed and supplied, and they’re not willing to fight a war that is lost. We still think a truce is likely by late summer, followed by negotiations that end this horrible war by fall. China, meanwhile, has bet on the wrong horse.
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